Ishu's Research Roadmap

The Research Question

What We're Actually Studying

Japan has 1.46 million hikikomori — people so socially withdrawn they rarely leave their rooms. AI companions like Replika are now spreading into this population. The question has never been answered empirically.

THE CORE QUESTION ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ When a chronically isolated person adopts an AI companion... Does it act as a BRIDGE? Does it act as a COCOON? ─────────────────────── ─────────────────────── AI gives safe space to AI becomes a substitute practice conversation. for human connection. ↓ ↓ Gradually rebuilds Withdrawal deepens. confidence. Room becomes permanent. ↓ ↓ Re-enters society. Never leaves. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Nobody has measured which one actually happens — until now. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ WHY JAPAN? ├── 1.46 million hikikomori (2023 government survey) ├── Japan already has 30+ years of virtual companionship culture │ Tamagotchi → Hatsune Miku → Love Plus → Gatebox → AI ├── Japanese government actively funding interventions └── The answer changes national mental health policy

Your Supervisor

Prof. Ohba Hirotsugu — Why He's Perfect

At Rikkyo's Graduate School of AI & Science. A moral philosopher who moved into AI ethics. His current funded research is exactly what you're studying.

SPECIALLY APPOINTED PROFESSOR · RIKKYO AI SCHOOL

OHBA Hirotsugu 大庭弘継

International Relations · Philosophy & Ethics · AI Alignment · Rikkyo University

PhD from University of Tokyo — Law & Political Science
Kyoto University → Nanzan Institute for Social Ethics → Rikkyo AI School
Personal website: hardestchoice.org — research on how people make impossible moral choices
Publishes in English — comfortable with international collaboration

HIS CURRENT FUNDED RESEARCH (JSPS Grant, 2025–2028): Project 1: "Embedding Ethical Limits into AI: Building Dilemmatic Decision Datasets" → He is building datasets of moral dilemmas to teach AI systems how to make ethical decisions. Project 2: "Dilemmas of Emerging Dual-Use Technologies and Public Perception" → How does the public reason about dangerous new technologies? (AI, biotech, space weapons) 2025 book: "AIに社会の声を届ける" "Delivering Society's Voice to AI" → He surveyed Japanese people on trolley-problem style choices. Published the results. ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ THE GAP HE HAS: ALL his data is from Japanese society. │ │ He has ZERO non-Western, non-Japanese perspectives. │ │ │ │ You = an Indian MPP student studying this same │ │ question from an Indian population. │ │ You fill a real gap in his funded research. │ │ You become a collaborator, not just a student. │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

The Research Plan

7 Days to a Working Paper

This is not theoretical. Each step is concrete, executable, and yours to understand.

DATA PIPELINE — How the Study Works ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ STEP 1: COLLECT STEP 2: FIND ───────────────── ───────────────── Reddit communities Crossover users with years of → People who appear in public posts: BOTH worlds: isolated subreddits r/hikikomori AND r/replika (AI app) r/replika → r/lonely These are the key subjects: r/ForeverAlone people who WERE isolated and THEN adopted AI. ~500,000 posts All public data ~2,000–5,000 users STEP 3: MEASURE STEP 4: FIND THE ANSWER ───────────────── ───────────────────────── For each user, Before AI adoption vs. read every post After AI adoption: over time. ↑ Bridge score = BRIDGE Measure: ↑ Cocoon score = COCOON → Social language? → Withdrawal language? Split: what % of people → Getting better? went which direction? → Getting worse? What predicted it? → Sadness / joy? THAT is the finding. (GPU does this automatically for 500,000 posts in ~4 hours) ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Day 1

Download the data

Arctic Shift hosts Reddit archives. Download r/hikikomori, r/replika, r/lonely, r/ForeverAlone as compressed files. No coding — one script runs it. ~2-5 GB download.

Day 2

Find the crossover users

Script identifies every user who posted in an isolation community AND adopted Replika. Builds their timeline month-by-month. This is the study population.

Day 3

Run the NLP analysis overnight (H100)

AI models read every post and score it: how socially engaged is this language? How withdrawn? How sad or hopeful? GPU processes ~500k posts in 4-6 hours.

Day 4

Statistics + the main finding

Before-vs-after comparison. Do bridge scores go up or down after AI adoption? The main thesis chart gets generated. The answer becomes clear.

Days 5–7

Write the paper (you write this)

Introduction, method, results, discussion — following standard academic structure. You interpret what the data means for Japanese mental health policy. This is your intellectual contribution.

Your Role

What You Do vs. What the Machine Does

This is a collaboration. The technical parts are handled. The intellectual parts — the parts that make this research matter — are yours.

YOUR CONTRIBUTION

Ishu — Lead Author

Frame the research question (policy + social science)
Understand what hikikomori means culturally — read 3-4 key papers
Decide what the findings mean for Japanese policy
Connect it to Prof. Ohba's ethical framework
Write the paper — introduction, discussion, conclusion
Send the email to Prof. Ohba — in your own voice
Interpret: is Bridge better? Is Cocoon actually harmful?

TECHNICAL SUPPORT

Vikas — Co-Author / Tech

Download and clean the Reddit data
Run the NLP scoring pipeline on the GPU
Produce the charts and figures
Run statistical tests
Handle all the Python / infrastructure

THE INTELLECTUAL WORK IS YOURS — HERE IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE Week 1, your reading list (3-4 papers, ~2 hours each): ① Saito, T. (2013) — "Hikikomori: Adolescence without End" → The foundational book on hikikomori. Understand what it is. ② Furlong, A. (2008) — "The Japanese hikikomori phenomenon" → Academic framing. How does policy currently treat this? ③ Ohba studies on hardestchoice.org → Read his survey work. Understand his method. This is your bridge to writing an email to him that actually connects. ④ Skjuve et al. (2021) — "My Chatbot Companion" → The one study that exists on AI companion wellbeing effects. Your study goes further. Know what came before yours. After reading these, you will know: → What the academic conversation is → Where the gap is (answer: cross-cultural + longitudinal data) → Why your study fills it → What to say to Prof. Ohba

Scholarship Impact

How This Changes Your Odds

Honest assessment. MEXT is competitive (~5-8% acceptance nationally). Here's what each step does to your position.

Strong MPP student, no research output ~10–15%

+ Specific research proposal + named faculty (Prof. Ohba) ~35–45%

+ Working paper / preliminary results in hand ~55–65%

+ Prof. Ohba replies positively to your email (informal interest) ~75–85%

* Estimates based on MEXT selection criteria — research plan quality and faculty alignment are the two highest-weighted factors.

WHY FACULTY CONTACT IS THE UNLOCK ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ MEXT Embassy selection process: Embassy → Nominates candidates to MEXT Tokyo MEXT Tokyo → Contacts universities for acceptance University → Faculty confirms interest in candidate If Prof. Ohba already knows who you are and has expressed interest, the university confirmation step becomes fast and positive. The embassy can feel this — a candidate with a real research relationship reads completely differently from one who just names a university on a form. Most applicants: "I want to study at Rikkyo." You: "Prof. Ohba and I have been discussing a comparative study on AI companion effects in isolated populations. He has expressed enthusiasm for our preliminary findings." ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Those are two entirely different applications. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Element	Without it	With it	Difficulty
Specific research question	Generic proposal	Bridge vs. Cocoon study	Done ✓
Named faculty match	"I want to study at Rikkyo"	Prof. Ohba, specific reason	Done ✓
Prior research output	None	Working paper / preprint	7 days
Faculty email	Generic intro	Specific research overlap	This week
IELTS 7.5+	Not done	Booked and done	Book now
MEXT Research Plan	Vague narrative	Your study = the plan	April 2026

The Email to Prof. Ohba

What You Actually Write

Send this before the research is finished — frame it as emerging work you'd value his perspective on. This is how academic relationships start.

Subject: Comparative study on AI companion effects in isolated populations — seeking your perspective Dear Prof. Ohba, I am an MPP student at O.P. Jindal Global University completing my degree in May 2027. I came across your work on dilemmatic decision datasets and hardestchoice.org, and your 2025 book on delivering society's voice to AI. I am conducting research on whether AI companionship acts as a social bridge or a deeper cocoon for chronically isolated individuals — using longitudinal analysis of online communities (r/hikikomori, r/replika). What strikes me about your work is that my study sits directly inside the design ethics question your JSPS projects are exploring: if AI companionship deepens withdrawal, should there be built-in ethical limits on companion design? Your framework for dilemmatic AI decisions seems to me the right lens for interpreting whatever we find. I am also aware that your current data is largely from Japanese society. As an Indian researcher, I am exploring whether the moral and social reasoning patterns you document in Japan hold differently across cultures. I have attached our preliminary research outline. I will be applying for the MEXT Embassy Scholarship to continue this work at Rikkyo under your supervision. Would you be open to a brief email exchange about whether this direction aligns with the lab's current research? With respect, Ishu [Last Name] MPP Candidate, O.P. Jindal Global University

→ This email is specific. It references his actual work (hardestchoice.org, the 2025 book, JSPS project). It positions you as a collaborator, not just a student applicant. It does not ask for anything she's not entitled to ask. Professors respond to this kind of email.

Start Now

Your Action List

In order. The first three are yours and only yours.

Read Ohba's work — Go to hardestchoice.org and his researchmap profile. Read about his trolley problem social surveys. Understand his method. 2-3 hours.
Read the four papers listed in "Your Role" section — the hikikomori literature. Take notes on: what is the current policy understanding? What is missing?
Write your version of the email above — in your own voice. Don't copy it. Use it as a template. Add one specific thing you found interesting in his research. Send it.
Book IELTS — target 7.5+. The MEXT Embassy form requires it. Book now, sit in 4-6 weeks.
Vikas runs the data pipeline — Days 1-4 are his. Your job is the reading and the writing.
Write the paper together, days 5-7 — you write the narrative sections, Vikas provides the data and figures. Use the findings to drive every sentence.
MEXT application opens April 2026 — your Research Plan is this study. The working paper is your evidence. Prof. Ohba's response is your faculty alignment.

One last thing.

This research is genuinely useful — not just for your application. If the finding is that AI companionship deepens withdrawal for most people, that has real implications for millions of isolated people in Japan and globally. The work matters beyond the scholarship. That's what makes it worth doing properly.

Ishu, this isyour research.